Figures on new construction requirements have been published for years. They vary depending on the publisher and are difficult to compare. Now a new, well-founded study by the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban and Spatial Development (BBSR) is available for the period up to 2030.
Demand for housing in Germany will remain high in the coming years. It is around 320,000 new apartments per year. However, there are major regional differences. This is the conclusion reached by the BBSR housing demand forecast commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Housing, Urban Development and Building. The forecast covers the period from 2023 to 2030.
The BBSR sees the highest absolute demand for new construction in the large cities with strong demand and the neighboring districts in the surrounding areas, while it is significantly lower in the peripheral regions with weaker demand. For the seven largest German cities alone (Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, Frankfurt am Main, Stuttgart, Cologne and Düsseldorf), the forecast puts the annual need for new construction at 60,000 apartments. This corresponds to a fifth of total demand.
The cities and districts in southern Germany have the greatest demand in terms of population. "According to our forecast, the number of households will grow by 1.3% to 42.6 million by 2030. This will continue to drive demand for housing," says BBSR housing market expert Anna Maria Müther. "New apartments must be built primarily in the fast-growing cities and their surrounding areas. The focus here is on rental and owner-occupied apartments in apartment buildings. In many rural regions, however, the need for new construction is moderate".
The figures in the BBSR forecast are higher than the most recently realized new construction figures: 294,400 apartments were completed in 2023, of which 262,900 were in newly constructed buildings. According to the BBSR, the demand for new apartments can be met by apartments in new residential buildings as well as by converting buildings, adding storeys to roofs or reusing vacant properties. The results of the forecast are available online at: .www.bbsr.bund.de/wohnungsbedarfsprognose
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